ICC Kenya case ruling and its consequences
That the ICC’s website crashed an hour before the ruling was given underscores the importance of today’s ICC ruling.
In the end it emerged that charges against Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura, MP William Ruto and radio Presenter Joshua Sang were confirmed. Former police commissioner Husein Ali and MP Henry Kosgey will walk, at least for now.
The political implications of the decision will be huge.
Firstly, President Kibaki must decide whether or not to retain two of his most trusted lieutenants in the government (Messrs Kenyatta and Muthaura) even as they face charges with regard to the death of 1300 Kenyans and the displacement of hundreds of thousands. Should the president decide to stand with them I suspect that soon the courts will have to decide whether these two are fit to hold public office.
Remember that Kenya has a resurgent judiciary eager to stamp its authority as an independent institution. There will be intense political pressure from Civil Society groups to see the two step aside.
Equally interesting will be whether the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission will allow Ruto and Kenyatta to run for president in light of these developments. Again, the case might go all the way to the Supreme Court. The Kenyan constitution has a clause banning those accused of certain crimes from holding public office. The vagueness of the wording in the constitution will give the courts discretion in reaching a verdict. I suspect some activism here was well.
Secondly, Ruto and Kenyatta will find it hard to sell their candidacy to Kenyans ahead of the general elections later this year. As the process continues, it will be hard for both (whether guilty or not) to hide from the gruesome crimes that were committed in 2007-08. I therefore doubt the viability of either one running for president at the top of a ticket. If they want to be on a winning team in this year’s election they must be part of a coalition.
But coalition building will be hard. For one, cracks are already appearing in either camp. Ruto recently got kicked out of a party he tried to commandeer after defecting from ODM. Mr. Kenyatta is also facing a simmering insurgency within his Central Kenya camp. The other thing is that the Kenyan economic and political upper class has revealed a willingness to throw the two under the bus if they become too much of a baggage. It is telling that a group of Central Kenyan tycoons have started warming up to Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the man to beat in this year’s general election.

ICC Kenya kesi tawala na matokeo yake
Kwamba tovuti ya ICC ilianguka saa kabla ya tawala alipewa inasisitiza umuhimu wa chama tawala cha leo ICC.
Mwisho wake aliibuka kuwa mashtaka dhidi ya Naibu Waziri Mkuu Uhuru Kenyatta, Mkuu wa Utumishi Francis Muthaura, Mbunge William Ruto na redio mtangazaji Joshua Sang walikuwa imara. Kamishina wa polisi wa zamani Husein Ali na Mbunge Henry Kosgey kutembea, angalau kwa sasa.
matokeo ya kisiasa ya uamuzi itakuwa kubwa.
Kwanza, Rais Kibaki lazima kuamua kama kuhifadhi lieutenants wake wawili wa kuaminiwa zaidi katika serikali (Messrs Kenyatta na Muthaura) hata kama wanakabiliwa na mashtaka kuhusiana na kifo cha Wakenya 1300 na kuhamishwa kwa mamia ya maelfu. Je rais kuamua kusimama pamoja nao mimi mtuhumiwa kwamba hivi karibuni mahakama kuamua kama hizi mbili ni fit kushikilia ofisi ya umma.
Kumbuka kwamba Kenya ina mahakama resurgent na hamu ya muhuri wa mamlaka yake kama taasisi huru. Kutakuwa na makali ya kisiasa na shinikizo kutoka kwa mashirika ya kiraia ya kuona hatua mbili kando.
Sawa kuvutia ni kama Huru ya Uchaguzi na Mipaka itaruhusu Ruto na Kenyatta kugombea urais katika mwanga wa maendeleo haya. Tena, kesi inaweza kwenda njia zote katika Mahakama ya Rufaa. Katiba ya Kenya ina kifungu kupiga marufuku wale wanaotuhumiwa kufanya uhalifu baadhi ya kutoka ofisi ya umma. unyenyezi ya maneno katika katiba ya mahakama kutoa uamuzi katika kufikia uamuzi. Mimi mtuhumiwa baadhi ya wanaharakati wa hapa pia.
Pili, Ruto na Kenyatta itakuwa ni vigumu kuuza mgombea wao kwa Wakenya kabla ya uchaguzi mkuu baadaye mwaka huu. Kama mchakato unaendelea, itakuwa vigumu kwa wote (kama hatia au la) kujificha kwa uhalifu wa kutisha kwamba nia ya mwaka 2007-08. Kwa hiyo shaka uwezekano wa ama moja kugombea urais kwa juu ya tiketi. Kama wanataka kuwa katika timu ya kushinda katika uchaguzi wa mwaka huu ni lazima kuwa sehemu ya muungano.
Lakini kujenga umoja itakuwa ngumu. Kwa moja, nyufa tayari kuonekana katika kambi aidha. Ruto hivi karibuni got mateke nje ya chama, alijaribu commandeer baada ya defecting kutoka ODM. Bw Kenyatta pia inakabiliwa na uasi simmering ndani ya kambi yake ya kati nchini Kenya. Jambo jingine ni kwamba Kenya ya kiuchumi na kisiasa daraja la juu umebaini nia ya kutupa mbili chini ya basi kama kuwa sana ya mizigo. Ni kuwaambia kwamba kundi la tycoons ya Kati wa Kenya wameanza joto hadi Waziri Mkuu Raila Odinga, mtu kwa kuwapiga katika uchaguzi mkuu wa mwaka huu.